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Fall out from Ukraine crisis ‘driving’ high inflation – conference told



Policymakers from Central Asia believe that the region will continue to see positive developments despite geopolitical headwinds.

Leaders from all walks of the economic spectrum agreed that the region’s macroeconomic fundamentals are strong, despite the global inflationary pressures and the conflict in Ukraine.

Participants included Timur Ishmetov (Finance Minister of Uzbekistan), Galmyzhan Pirmatov (Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan) and Koba Gvenetadze (Governor of the National Bank of Georgia).

Policymakers recognized the grave threat of inflation to economic growth in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

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High inflation was caused by external factors such as Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, tighter global monetary policies and delayed effects of supply chain disruptions due to the Covid pandemic.

Recognizing the danger posed by tightening monetary policy was shared, but the main risk to regional macroeconomic stability was the fear of spiralling and deepened inflation.

Pirmatov & Ishmetov believe that continued efforts to improve macroeconomic stability in both countries are unified by a shared desire to accelerate reforms to increase the private sector participation and better coordinate fiscal & monetary policy.

Gvenetadze stressed the effect of migration flows from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus on Georgia’s Iari. Increasing demand leads to currency appreciation which in turn results in an estimated 1.5% increase to the annual GDP. Gvenetadze, the governor of the Georgian central bank, stressed that inflation must be controlled before being allowed to enter the economy.


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Timur Ishmetov (Uzbekistan’s finance minister) stated that “Uzbekistan has strong economic prospects for this fiscal year.” We expect an annual growth rate in excess of 5%, and we will work to reduce inflation, which is mainly driven by external shocks to below 5%. To limit the impact of inflation on our economy, we will make use of all macroprudential tools. We will also continue our ambitious supply side reform package to encourage private sector participation and increase productivity.

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