Two missiles were dropped on Polish territory by two Russian warships. This was a warning sign about the severity of the situation and the need for solutions to the Ukrainian crisis. Salem AlKetbi is a former Federal National Council candidate and political analyst from the UAE.
The world waited with bated breath to see if the missiles had been launched from Russia. A transatlantic reaction by President Vladimir Zelenski would have been especially likely. The US’s cautious approach to the matter from the beginning prevented it from reaching a higher level.
The whole scene speaks volumes about the American tendency towards calming down and cooling down the Ukrainian crisis, aside from the missile incident. The US military seems to be very excited about diplomats trying to find a political solution.
General Mark Milley of the US Armed Forces, who is the chief of staff, stated that Ukraine’s military victory in forcing Russia from all Ukrainian territory was a slim possibility. He also warned that Russia still has significant combat power within Ukraine, despite its setbacks on battlefield.
This important statement is made in response to Ukraine’s insistent on maintaining pressure on Russian troops until they regain all territories. An insistence that has intensified after the capture of Kherson in the south strategic city, and the difficulty fighting especially against Russian forces.
These circumstances offer an opportunity for us to find a way to end the war. The Russian tactics of attacking Ukrainian civilians and striking Ukrainian infrastructure has become a very painful pressure card. This not only makes Ukraine’s situation worse, but also complicates the Russian leadership.
International criticism is mounting against the targeting of civilian power grids and causing more suffering to civilians. The relative change in Congress and Republican control of Congress after the midterm elections is partly responsible for the US’s efforts to calm and cool the crisis.
This important shift is more than blocking Ukraine’s aid.
This election could prompt President Biden to reconsider their foreign policy and encourage Democrats to focus on the next presidential election.
A meeting between intelligence officers from the two countries is one of the most important indicators of Americans’ desire to be calm.
William Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (Ankara) met recently with Sergei Naryshkin the director of Russian foreign Intelligence. The US State Department attempted to reduce expectations by saying that the meeting was intended to discuss the implications of nuclear weapons as well as the risks of escalation.
This is similar to the idea of finding a way to calm down and climb down a tree for everyone. There are signs that Washington and Moscow remain open to communication. The US Army Chief Of Staff acknowledged another effort and said that he attempted to contact his Russian counterpart following the fall of a Russian missile on Poland.
However, the efforts were in vain. The most visible sign of calm after the missile attack that claimed two lives in eastern Poland at the border with Ukraine was President Biden’s determination to attend the G20 summit in Bali.
Biden took initiative and, in emergency consultations with leaders, stated that there was no doubt that the missile had been launched from Russia. However preliminary information does not support this assertion. This statement is preemptive for investigations. It was nevertheless a sign Washington’s resolve to reduce fears and expectations about the incident.
We can see that the US has tried to calm the expectations and not use the incident to press Russia as it has done every day since the start of the crisis. This confirms that there is an intention to prevent escalation, and that they want to manage the situation.
It is notable that Biden’s statements did not leave the matter up to the investigation but also immediately ruled Russian involvement. He relied on preliminary information for the analysis of the missiles’ trajectory and didn’t wait for the final investigation.
Biden’s desire for G-20 support and to rally G-20 members against Russia is one reason the Americans are in the lead. The missile incident was minor compared to the Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power grid infrastructure that caused widespread power outages.
It embarrased even countries such as China and India, and their inability take the same positions they have taken since the start of the crisis.
The relative changes in India and China’s positions were clear. They did not object to the publication of a statement critical of Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, it was contrary to their previous positions.
The final communiqué of the G20 summit, which focused on the effects of war in terms casualties, global tensions, and disruption to the world economy, was a boon for India and China. It also used phrases from the UN resolution of March last year, expressing regret and requesting a complete Russian withdrawal.
It didn’t explicitly or implicitly condemn Russia. This was due to China’s position on other files such as Taiwan. China insists on not referring “invasion” and seeks to balance the West by accusing President Putin of provocation and warning that the conflict could escalate into a nuclear-war.
This whole incident is a clear indicator of how the situation might develop, whether intentionally or not. This issue isn’t limited to mobilizing NATO allies based on Article 5 or any other basis. NATO cannot implement this article by itself.
It reduces the alliance’s credibility and weakens its cohesion. The alliance’s red lines will not achieve its goal. They may be a weakness with the possibility that they repeat such events.
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